Nationally Determined Contributions

Background

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change adopted by 196 countries at COP21 in Paris in 2015. Its primary goal is to limit global warming to well below 2°C, with efforts to keep it under 1.5°C. It works on a five-year cycle of increasingly ambitious climate actions through nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The agreement also emphasizes financial, technical, and capacity-building support for developing countries. An enhanced transparency framework tracks progress and supports the global stocktake to assess and enhance climate action.

Despite all the Western Balkan countries adopting nationally determined contributions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, most have not set binding time lines for phasing out coal and transitioning to renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind.

In short

Albania

Albania’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) aims for a reduction of 20.9% below the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2030, which translates to a reduction of 6,674 kilotons of CO2 equivalent from 2021 to 2030. However, this target is not directly compared to 1990 levels in the available documents.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commits to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 33.2% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels using domestic resources (unconditional target). With international support, the target increases to a 36.8% reduction compared to 1990 levels (conditional target).

Kosovo

Given its status, Kosovo is not a party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement, and therefore not required to submit NDCs. However, in 2021, Kosovo initiated a discussion with international stakeholders to prepare a voluntary NDC. With support from Japan, Kosovo has reestablished the Climate Change Council, initiating the process of developing the voluntary NDC. Kosovo has committed to a 32% reduction in GHG emissions by 2031 compared to the 1990 level.

Montenegro

Montenegro aims to reduce its GHG emissions by at least 35% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. This is part of their commitment under the Paris Agreement.

North Macedonia

North Macedonia has committed to an 82% reduction in net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. This ambitious target reflects their enhanced nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement.

Serbia

Serbia aims to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 33.3% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. This target is part of Serbia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. The 9% reduction was an earlier target, but it has since been revised to the more ambitious 33.3% goal.

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5 main pillars
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Decarbonisation and climate resilience

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Circular economy

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Depollution: air, water & soil

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Biodiversity: protection & restoration of ecosystems

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Biodiversity: protection & restoration of ecosystems

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Governance and implementation

The energy mix of the Western Balkans is dominated by fossil fuel use. In 2020, 71.7%* of energy generated came from the use of coal, oil, and oil products [10]. This produces around 90 million tonnes of CO2 annually, with 45 million tonnes of that contributed by the burning of lignite in 2020 [11]. In the same year, the CO2 emissions from the electricity generated by fossil fuels increased by 7% on average. This, combined with the inefficiency within the WB energy grid and the dependence on fossil fuels, led to the carbon intensity associated with electricity three times higher than the average experienced in EU-27 countries in 2020. At the same time, while EU-27 carbon emissions fell by 14%, corresponding WB6 emissions increased by 4% [12].

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If these six countries are to meet their NDC commitments and be compliant with the legislation set out by the Paris Agreement, they must decarbonise – and we are seeing this. For example, in Serbia in 2022, a public call was issued for decarbonisation projects and 21 SMEs were selected to participate in a series of workshops on green transformation and just transition.

Of these 21, proposals from eight SMEs were chosen to receive co-financing for decarbonisation projects. They received USD 600,000 from Japan (who provided financial support for the Initiative for a Just Green Transition and Decarbonization in Serbia) and USD 9.8 million from the private sector. Overall, the hope is that these decarbonisation efforts will mitigate the production of 12.563 tons of CO2 emissions annually over the next 20 years [18].

SOURCES: https://www.ecoltdgroup.com/mitigation-potential-in-the-western-balkans-investigating-decarbonisation-and-res-in-the-region/

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