Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
Background
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are central to the global response to climate change. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries pledged to regularly submit NDCs, outlining their specific targets and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The Western Balkans Six - comprising of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia - are active participants in this global framework, committing to the transition toward a low-carbon economy.
The Paris Agreement seeks to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, ideally to 1.5°C. For the Western Balkans, this ambition presents both a challenge and an opportunity: decarbonising economies still deeply reliant on fossil fuels while advancing toward sustainable, climate-resilient growth.
The Western Balkans Six - comprising of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia - are active participants in this global framework, committing to the transition toward a low-carbon economy.
The Paris Agreement seeks to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, ideally to 1.5°C. For the Western Balkans, this ambition presents both a challenge and an opportunity: decarbonising economies still deeply reliant on fossil fuels while advancing toward sustainable, climate-resilient growth.
NDCs Across the Western Balkans
Each Western Balkans countries have submitted their respective NDCs, with varying levels of ambition:
- Albania aims for a 20.9% reduction in emissions by 2030, compared to a business-as-usual scenario. This target translates to a reduction of 6,674 kilotons of CO2 equivalent by 2030.
Download the NDC - Bosnia and Herzegovina commits to a 33.2% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. With international support, the target increases to 36.8%.
Download the NDC - Kosovo, while not a signatory to the Paris Agreement due to its political status, has voluntarily committed to reducing emissions by 32% by 2031 compared to 1990.
See UNDP’s climate process - Montenegro targets a 35% reduction in emissions by 2030 relative to 1990 levels.
Download the NDC - North Macedonia has one of the most ambitious targets, committing to an 82% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 1990.
Download the NDC - Serbia has set a target of a 33.3% reduction in emissions by 2030, revising an earlier target of 9% to a more aggressive goal.
Download the NDC
Challenges and Opportunities in Decarbonization
The Western Balkans’ energy mix remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, primarily coal, oil, and natural gas. As of 2020, fossil fuels accounted for over 70% of the region’s energy use, contributing to around 90 million tons of CO₂ emissions annually, half of which come from lignite combustion alone. The carbon intensity of electricity generation in the region is nearly three times higher than the EU average, underscoring the critical need for rapid decarbonisation.
Although some progress has been made in reducing emissions - highlighted in several promising case studies - the pace of change remains too slow. To meet Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and align with the EU Green Deal, the Western Balkans must accelerate the phase-out of coal and scale up investment in renewable energy, particularly solar and wind.
Although some progress has been made in reducing emissions - highlighted in several promising case studies - the pace of change remains too slow. To meet Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and align with the EU Green Deal, the Western Balkans must accelerate the phase-out of coal and scale up investment in renewable energy, particularly solar and wind.
Financial and Technical Support
For many Western Balkan countries, achieving ambitious NDC targets will require significant financial and technical support from international donors and stakeholders. Initiatives like the support from the European Commission for various carbon projects under the Economic and investment Plan exemplify how international partnerships can play a crucial role in facilitating a just green transition.
In addition to financial support, capacity-building efforts are essential for enhancing technical expertise and the ability to track emissions, as well as ensuring transparency in climate action. The region’s progress will be regularly assessed through the Paris Agreement’s enhanced transparency framework and global stocktakes, ensuring accountability and driving further action.
In addition to financial support, capacity-building efforts are essential for enhancing technical expertise and the ability to track emissions, as well as ensuring transparency in climate action. The region’s progress will be regularly assessed through the Paris Agreement’s enhanced transparency framework and global stocktakes, ensuring accountability and driving further action.
The Road Ahead Toward Compliance
For the Western Balkans to comply with the Paris Agreement and meet their NDC commitments, significant transformations are needed:
- Shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydroelectric power will be essential. This includes the modernization of outdated power plants, many of which are reliant on lignite coal.
- Aligning national climate policies with the EU’s environmental regulations will ensure the region is well-positioned for integration into the European Green Deal. This includes setting binding timelines for coal phase-outs and adopting more robust carbon pricing mechanisms.
- Attracting both public and private investment into renewable energy projects, energy efficiency measures, and green technology will drive the region’s decarbonization efforts. Public-private partnerships will play a key role in scaling up these initiatives.